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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 1

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 74-J.Fisher reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 81-T.Kroft for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model