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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 4

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 4, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model