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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:27) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.03 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP