Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

(12:57) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-82-C.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.56 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model