4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 87

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(11:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to CIN 36, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to PIT 45 for 19 yards (28-S.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.58 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 87, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP