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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:53) (Punt formation) 20-R.Golden pass deep right to 88-D.Heyward-Bey pushed ob at CIN 16 for 44 yards (12-A.Erickson).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model