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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to GB 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-21-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP