Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 58

Green Bay Packers 14 – New Orleans Saints 13

(9:00) 8-J.Vogel punts 42 yards to NO 16, Center-59-T.Pepper, downed by GB-59-T.Pepper.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.76 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model