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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 13 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP