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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 16 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model