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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 17 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 8-J.Vogel punts 44 yards to NO 40, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on GB-27-J.Jones, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at NO 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.88 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 84, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model