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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas to GB 24 for 5 yards (50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.13 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model