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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 8-J.Vogel punts 51 yards to NO 20, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on GB-27-J.Jones, Fair Catch Interference, 0 yards, enforced at NO 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP