4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model