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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.67 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP