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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 6

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 4-S.Hauschka 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model