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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model