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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to PHI 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP