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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 9

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 6-N.Rose 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.36 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 9, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP