4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 58

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to PHI 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.51 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model