4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model