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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 27

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model