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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 25

New York Jets 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.39 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model