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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Jets 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to ATL 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, and recovers at ATL 6. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 6 for no gain (45-R.Miles). PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 6.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP