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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 98

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to ATL 47, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -3.77 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.06 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 98, worth -6.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model