4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 30

New York Jets 17 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 7-C.Catanzaro 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.07 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model