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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 22 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model