Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 71

New York Jets 20 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to ATL 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-A.Roberts for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on ATL-20-S.Neasman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.34 EP
61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model