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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to CAR 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-K.Clay to CAR 32 for 11 yards (37-K.Tandy).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.75 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model