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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.61 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model