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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 89

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to CAR 39, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-K.Clay to CAR 49 for 10 yards (59-D.Bond).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model