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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 10

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model