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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 33 yards to CAR 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model