4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 87

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:28) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to TB 34, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-B.Reedy to TB 46 for 12 yards (19-R.Shepard, 53-B.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model