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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to TB 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model