4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:22) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to TB 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model