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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:08) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-B.Reedy pushed ob at TB 24 for 10 yards (19-R.Shepard). PENALTY on CAR-57-A.Gachkar, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.16 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP