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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle [95-Ch.Johnson].

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.43 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP