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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 3

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 7-B.Walsh 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +4.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.77 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP