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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 88

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 44 for 11 yards (38-T.Madden).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.19 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 88, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model