Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(7:32) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to SF 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.09 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model