4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to SF 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-33-D.McDougle.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.86 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP