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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to PHI 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 38-K.Barner to PHI 26 for 4 yards (88-G.Celek).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP