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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Barnett), Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by PHI-96-D.Barnett at PHI 30. 96-D.Barnett to PHI 38 for 8 yards (88-G.Celek).

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 9, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model