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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model