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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to PHI 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP