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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 73

Denver Broncos 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(14:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to PHI 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-K.Barner to PHI 25 for 7 yards (14-C.Latimer).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model