4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 35

Denver Broncos 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.49 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP