Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 86

Denver Broncos 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to PHI 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-K.Barner to PHI 41 for 4 yards (31-J.Simmons). PENALTY on PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 36.

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.13 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model