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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 17-A.Jeffery.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.93 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP